What if the Netherlands used FPTP?

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Examining the difference in election outcome between FPTP and D’Hondt (proportional representation).

Thomas Zwagerman https://twitter.com/thomzwa (Centre for Ecology & Hydrology)https://www.ceh.ac.uk/
03-24-2021

In this short article I am exploring what the Dutch political landscape would look like if it operated under a first-past-the-post (FPTP) system.

The election data for the Netherlands was downloaded from the Kiesraad.

Results Tweede Kamer Verkiezing 2017

These are the 2017 results summarised:

party votes seats percentage
VVD 2279126 34 22.3
D66 1565862 24 15.3
PVV 1124482 17 11.0
CDA 990601 15 9.7
PvdA 597192 9 5.8
SP 623371 9 6.1
FvD 523083 8 5.1
GROENLINKS 537308 8 5.3
PvdD 399751 6 3.9
ChristenUnie 351275 5 3.4
DENK 211238 3 2.1
JA21 246620 3 2.4
SGP 215249 3 2.1
Volt 252480 3 2.5
BBB 104319 1 1.0
BIJ1 87238 1 0.9
Partij 50PLUS 106702 1 1.0

Let’s start with examining the composition of the Tweede Kamer - under a proportional representation (D’Hondt) system. This is what the Tweede Kamer looks like currently:

Now let’s have a look at what it would look like under First-past-the-Post (FPTP), with one MP elected per Gemeente.

Now, there are a couple of obvious differences:

But also some obvious caveats:

Election results on a map

We can also show these results on a map - this in an interactive map which allows you to explore the individual election results for each Gemeente.